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Old 28th October 2006, 07:48 AM
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Unhappy Can Red Hat Survive? Red Hat's shared tumbled 25 percent

Oracle's bid to steal business away from Red Hat has thrust the world's largest Linux software distributor into an extremely challenging position. It might even signal the beginning of the end for Red Hat, industry analysts and insiders said.

Red Hat's shared tumbled 25 percent Thursday after Oracle, the giant database software company, said it would offer support services for Red Hat's open source Linux software—at half the price Red Hat currently charges. The move was almost certain to cut into the lucrative support contracts that Red Hat relies upon for the bulk of its revenues, prompting some industry watchers to suggest the Linux upstart could become a takeover target for Oracle.

Enterprise Applications Consulting analyst Joshua Greenbaum said Oracle's gambit puts Red Hat in a “very dangerous position” because it doesn’t own intellectual property and is just offering services. “I don’t think this is the end of Red Hat,” he said. “This is the beginning of the end, and it’s going to be up to them to show how to pull [their] feet out of the fire.”

Oracle CEO Larry Ellison caused a stir at the OracleWorld conference in San Francisco this week by announcing that his company would begin offering support services for Red Hat's Linux software. Oracle said it would also indemnify customers against any intellectual property issues arising from using the software. Not everyone believes Oracle's announcement will prove disastrous for Red Hat.

Sanford & Bernstein analyst Charles Di Bona said Red Hat will have to cut prices to survive, even though that will hurt its margins. Others, such as Billy Marshall, chief executive of software appliance company rPath, suggest Red Hat will ultimately survive. “I see this as being a distraction for the Red Hat team in the near term,” said Mr. Marshall, who was previously vice president of North American sales at Red Hat.

Matthew Szulik, Red Hat's chief executive, said Friday that his company would not cut prices, despite Oracle's move. Mr Szulik said Red Hat welcomed the competition and would continue to sell its products along with Oracle's database software. Red Hat shares rebounded Friday, gaining more than 8 percent in midday trading, as the company said it plans to buy back as much as $325 million of its stock and bonds.

Some analysts suggested Mr. Ellison was trying to drive down Red Hat's market capitalization, making it cheaper for Oracle to buy Red Hat. “Given the amount of drama involving the PeopleSoft acquisition, you can’t rule out the possibility that this is a move by Oracle to make Red Hat a more affordable acquisition target,” said Raven Zachary, an analyst with the 451 Group.

Oracle acquired applications vendor PeopleSoft in January 2005 for $10.3 billion following an 18-month war of words that set new standards of nastiness in Silicon Valley. While some people think that Oracle wouldn’t benefit much by acquiring Red Hat, Mr. Zachary said the Redwood Shores, California-based company would get Red Hat’s talent and customer relationships after the acquisition. Red Hat’s current market capitalization is $3 billion.
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Old 28th October 2006, 08:36 AM
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Even though Red Hat doesn't own the intellectual property behind linux, it has the name association with Red Hat Linux and I think that's sufficient to keep them at the top of the linux support market. Look at Dell and how much it makes on service contracts sold at point of sale. Dell doesn't own the intellectual property behind making computers and there are plenty of third party support vendors now, but people still tend to rely on whatever company sold them the product in the first place.

Red Hat may have to cut prices somewhat, but I think they'll maintain a grip on support for their own product and eventually Oracle will bow out of the market when it turns out not to be a profitable enough venture.
(Cobain) Fedora 8 - Gigabyte GA-K8U, Sempron 64 3000+, 2 gigs ram (Kingston and Gskill), 160 gig Maxtor SATA hd, nVidia GeForce 7600 GS 512mb, Hauppauge WinTV-HVR-950 USB TV stick
(Cornell) Fedora 9 - AMD Turion X2, 3 gigs ram, 250 gig hard drive, nVidia GeForce 8200
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Old 28th October 2006, 09:04 AM
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From my experince with Oracle and the past knowlege of L. E. I would buy Red Hat stock, and also suggest they sell Oracle service contracts.
As well as MySQl service contracts, and maybe an asurance plan to cover (Suse, Ubuntu, and VMware) service.

Do the Math
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