Earthquake

[Wayne]

I'm out of here

[AndrewSerk]

Travel safe, watch your top knot

[JamesNZ]

Will be praying for you, have a good trip

[RupertPupkin]

Originally Posted by JamesNZ

Hubbards is the best cereal company in the world bar none

I think you misspelled Kashi.

As far as Japan goes, I strongly suspect that Godzilla is behind all this, at least until his involvement has been definitively ruled out.

[kona0197]

Stay safe Wayne. Hope all goes well.

[MALsPa]

Wayne, I just want to say thanks for posting and letting everyone know what's going on there, and I hope everything goes well for you.

[stevea]

Originally Posted by Wayne

I'm out of here

No blame. For it's nanoscopic worth - I agree with your timing.

20hrs ago it appeared there would a 3miI/TMI or less category problem - a little naughty venting & the loss of the 2 active reactors (the facility has 6 reactors, but 3 were down for maintenance).

The 8217 uSv/hr rate after the reactor #2 explosion implies that there is enough melt to expose rods. Any further venting (and there will either be cooling, venting or else a melt through) will carry more than nominal of radiation. ((background radiation runs ~0.3uSv/hr depending a lot on where you live)).

That level or radiation is going to make any cooling effort much more problematic. Taking an 8yr radiation dose in an hour dramatically limits human exposure time. . Not that many people are willing to work more than a few hours at that rate.

Keep in mind that at Chernobyl (and we aren't there yet, and hopefully never will be) hit peak 35000 uSv/hr at 100 miles distance (2 weeks at that level and you are dead, but ths was short halflife stuff). Notable radiation increases in Finland, Germany, small parts of Western Italy, Russia. Normal prevailing wind directions weren't a good indicator in that case. So anything closer that NZ or AU would signal "keep moving" to me.

[JamesNZ]

Originally Posted by stevea

So anything closer that NZ or AU would signal "keep moving" to me.

So you're saying that if Fukushima turns into a Chernobyl 2 then anything closer than NZ or Aussie is not safe?

[stevea]

Ouch - bad update .

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110315D15JF919.htm

Meanwhile, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the radiation level reached 400 millisievert per hour near the No. 3 reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 plant Tuesday morning. The amount is 400 times higher than the allowable limit for citizens in a year.

(IOW 400year exposure limit per hour).

400mSv/hr = 400000uSv/hr = 0.4 Sv/hr. Probably a spot reading, but 7 minutes exposure (50mSv dose) means blood changes increased cancer risk, 2.5hrs exposure (1 Sv)=death.

I'm reading differnet sources and that above tis a bit too alarmist bu a factor of ~10. so
400mSv/hr = 400000uSv/hr = 0.4 Sv/hr. Probably a spot reading, but 70 minutes exposure (500mSv dose) means blood changes increased cancer risk, 25hrs exposure (10 Sv)=death.

That's very bad news. Bad trend.

Hope is that the winds are favorable, cooling is works and the steam filters remove enough radiation.

---------- Post added at 03:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:45 AM ----------

Originally Posted by JamesNZ

So you're saying that if Fukushima turns into a Chernobyl 2 then anything closer than NZ or Aussie is not safe?

Yes. I suggest you look at the areas affected by Chernobyl. A good deal of impact many hundred miles away. But as I said there was notable increases in Finland and bits of Italy. No evacuations, but things like accumulation in European fish several times above EU standards. Nice French animation of the Chernobyl spread. Covered ~40% of Western Europe, including a good bit of France and UK.
http://www.irsn.fr/FR/popup/Pages/tc...deo_nuage.aspx

The map of the worst areas - Note the "drop zone" about 100 miles downwind of the plant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster_effects
http://www.whatisnuclear.com/chernobyl/memories.html
(btw 3500 mR/hr =35000uSv/hr.)

TORCH report

"In terms of their surface areas, Belarus (22% of its land area) and Austria (13%) were most affected by higher levels of contamination. Other countries were seriously affected; for example, more than 5% of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden were contaminated to high levels (> 40,000 Bq/m² caesium-137). More than 80% of Moldova, the European part of Turkey, Slovenia, Switzerland, Austria and the Slovak Republic were contaminated to lower levels (> 4,000 Bq/m² caesium-137). And 44% of Germany and 34% of the UK were similarly affected." (See map of radioactive distribution of Caesium-137 in Europe)[6]

Cs-137 has a ~30yr half life, but the I-131 with a half-life of 8 days was the biggest immediate biological problem. I have no idea what this likely in this case as far as isotopes.

---

So yeah - you can get nailed real good 100mi downwind, but the secondary region is huge and you really don't want to breath, eat or drink anything there till the dust settles - *IF* you have options.

Don't Panic - but it is time to head for the exits as a prudent precaution IMO. I sincerely hope that things don't get that bad, and there are good reasons to think it won't. Better reactor design, more resources to bring to bear on the problem generally better competence. OTOH three bad reactors = three chances to lose and things are not going well, actually getting worse. The public transparency is less than ideal. So IMO that 1% chance of losing your health is worth an unplanned vacation. The direction of the crisis will probably be clear in 48 hours, and the total extent of damage in 10 days, 2-3 weeks at most.

Hoping & working for the best but planning for the worst isn't irrational


*** Does anyone know of an effective charity for the Japan Crisis ?

---------- Post added at 03:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:20 AM ----------

Wind maps.:
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Wi...x?region=chjap

Makes Tokyo look pretty dangerous Tuesday, improving after.

[sonoran]

Originally Posted by stevea

*** Does anyone know of an effective charity for the Japan Crisis ?

See post #75 in this thread, reliable source.

[John the train]

Originally Posted by JamesNZ

So you're saying that if Fukushima turns into a Chernobyl 2 then anything closer than NZ or Aussie is not safe?

James, take a look at the Wikipedia entry on Chernobyl, particularly the section ' 24 years later... '. A lot depends on your definition of ' safe '. Here in the UK we're still monitoring sheep from some areas for caseium levels, The Chernobyl plume disproved the ' On the beach ' scenario of a steady and uniform spread of radiation, the contamination that hit the UK came up from the south. There are just too many variables to draw a line and say ' beyond this is safe '.

[stevea]

Originally Posted by sonoran

See post #75 in this thread, reliable source.

Thanks Sonoran - but I'm not impressed.
Japan society of NYC has 30% overhead costs
http://www.charitynavigator.org/inde...ary&orgid=5995

I'm looking at these - from Forbes list of efficient charities.
http://www.directrelief.org/OurFinances.aspx
http://www.americares.org/
http://www.map.org/
Overhead in/under the 1% range.

[Wayne]

Just an update. I've arrived at Osaka with my ex and my son and we're staying (in separate rooms of course) in a reasonably (cheap!) priced business hotel. 'er indoors refused to leave saying I was panicking and wasting money!

There were a lot of families, many foreign or mixed foreign Japanese spouse on the train down. I think I made the right decision.

[Salamandra]

Glad to hear of you. If you think you have made the right decision then it is completely right.

If you're wrong you've only spent some money.

[smr54]

Wife is in Tokyo, says it's not too bad where she is, and oddly enough, the seminar she is giving has almost full attendance.

She figures she can always run to Osaka if it gets too bad, her family is there.