Two years from now, where do you think Linux will be?

[linuxted]

I know predictions are fraught with error, but they can also be fun. I was thinking today how the landscape for Linux has changed in the last two years and how it might change in the next two. I think Linux will thrive but FC may not. The reason I say this is I suspect only the distributions with corporate backing or profit-based may be able to afford to have websites like this where people can discuss issues and download software. Whether or not FC has corporate backing (redhat???) depends if a company sees a financial value in keeping the distro going. My understanding is redhat sees value in FC as a "testbed" for new stuff before it gets used in their enterprise software.

What think you? Look into that crystal ball :D

Thanks

[tejas]

I don't think that this website is backed by RedHat

I think this site is the generosity of Mr Ewdison Then, who posts on this forum as ewdi

I really don't think that FC will be going down. It is a real community effort, with everyone trying to participate and help program, document or even isolate and report bugs

I think that in the next few years, when MS promotes longhorn, and turns it's back on Windows XP. People will realise that they'd rather stick with Linux. Where you pay 0$ for installing, and 0$ a month for upgrading.

Not to mention 0$ for new software.

[VN-Frank]

I don't think that this website is backed by RedHat

I think this site is the generosity of Mr Ewdison Then, who posts on this forum as ewdi

I really don't think that FC will be going down. It is a real community effort, with everyone trying to participate and help program, document or even isolate and report bugs

I think that in the next few years, when MS promotes longhorn, and turns it's back on Windows XP. People will realise that they'd rather stick with Linux. Where you pay 0$ for installing, and 0$ a month for upgrading.

Not to mention 0$ for new software.
Ok tejas, I agree.

I'm still concerned in general, not RH specific. Money must be made in some way for a distro, otherwise the required hardware zoo for ongoing maintenance and staffing for the same maintanance cannot be secured "in professional manner". In my eyes, RH's business model IS on very thin ice. Now dont refer to the last quarters report, but look longer term. They cant sell the software, its still mostly GPL. Just the service contract is sold.

Now that service, can be provided also from Bangalore....and Bejing, and any other place where stable telecom links and skilled engineers exist. That game is changing very fast, and so will the profitability.

IF the main revenue stream for a distro can only come from the support, then where in the world will such support centers have the best environmntal conditions ? The US ? I dont think so. Every big business in US and Europe thinks about outsourcing whatever they can to anywhere in Asia. Right ? So, where leaves that RH in 5 years ?

At least NOT in the US. The markiting arm yes, but not the broad support base who generates the profit margin.

Then : IF that support anyway will happen from lower cost countries in Asia, then it can be just as well any other next distro, that will be build in Asia.... not necessarily RH anymore.

I see RH mostly as a successful marketing gig now, not as technology leader in Linux.

As soon the linux engineers anywhere in the world have enough competence and self-confidence, they will all do the same logical thing: build their own distro, market it, and sell their OWN service contract to the customers they can find by them.

Thin ice for RH ....

[92b16vx]

I think Linux's problem is it's freedom. Not that it should be sold, but that anyone with the know how can make their own distro, which reflects in the many, many that are availible. Now, this may seem like a good thing, but it decentralizes progress, and hence, impeds forward movement as a whole. Just think, if the many different minds and resources pulled together to work on a major project, MS wouldn't stand a chance. It's just like anything else, there's strength in numbers, but when those numbers are pulling in different directions they accomplish less.

[bitrain]

I think Linux's problem is it's freedom. Not that it should be sold, but that anyone with the know how can make their own distro, which reflects in the many, many that are availible. Now, this may seem like a good thing, but it decentralizes progress, and hence, impeds forward movement as a whole. Just think, if the many different minds and resources pulled together to work on a major project, MS wouldn't stand a chance. It's just like anything else, there's strength in numbers, but when those numbers are pulling in different directions they accomplish less.I agree with that, progress is slower when people are working on more projects, but that's also linux's strength. Linux wouldn't be so great if there was only one browser, one <insert something here>. A coin always has 2 sides.

[92b16vx]

True, but there wouldn't be a need to say focus primarily on say one browser, but instead of having different tweakings for each distro, the however many ten windows managers could all perform flawlessly on any system, instead of Suses version, Mankdrakes version, Linspires version etc...you could have a Linux version of say Fluxbox, KDE, Gnome, etc...then they could be user customized to their liking. I think that is a better explaination of what I am saying. Kind of like when I was first trying out distros, one would work on one thing, another would work on another, this one supports my mouse, this one supports my monitor, this one supports my soundcard, but none support it all. FC was the first that gave me the least amount of trouble as far as hardware, and the community support is AWESOME.

I'm not thinking so much as limiting projects to centralize into say one desktop manager, or one DVD burner, but more for Linux as a whole, and not as much distro specific programs, and hardware solutions. Lets be real for a minute, Windows may seem like a horrible thing, but think about the fact that almost anything will run on it, almost all hardware is plug and play, and that that isn't is an easy driver install/DL away. Reason being is that things are developed by lots of people to work specifically on that system, from internet browsers to program emulators, to compression software, 3D imaging, etc...If linux could pull more people into the fold in a pinp[oint goal oriented way, it could easliy push into Windows territory as far as ease of use and prolificness.

[maclinux]

I think Linux would be more popular if computer OEMs started selling more systems preloaded with Linux. One thing I seem to notice is that a lot of people buy a computer and never upgrade its original OS or bundled anti-virus. They think once they buy the computer its fine and only buy additional software for the next 4 to 5 years. Thats probably why most Windows users don't use XP yet.

[Firewing1]

I think the exact same. We need to start selling computers with FC4, pre installed and configured. Then it'll get it's breakthrough. Linux is a great platform, but it's just too much time for others. I've learnt more than ever since I started using RH9.0, and I'm still using FC4. I've tried Mandrake, it's jsut not the same. FC is the best distro, and should stay that way. I think it just needs to be a bit more user-friendly. If we all put an effort into it, we can have Linux run aside Mac and Microsoft. Look at Mac ; They're based on command-line unix but made it big!
Firewing1

[92b16vx]

Thats probably why most Windows users don't use XP yet.
Where am teh crack?

Windows Xp comes on 99.999% of off the self systems.

Another thing that is going to keep Linux out of mainstream use is the command line. While it is a powerful tool, it requires a bit of knowledge to master in it's present form. If they was a way to simplify things, in example, to up pack and install a tar.gz, if it were [root@localhost]# unpack install nerolinux.tar.gz and your done it would be great, but first you have to unpack then move into directory, tell it to make an install, than install, then configure, blah there's a reason install shield for windows is so easy.

[Firewing1]

It's exactly that. Linux needs to be more newb-friendly. The Terminal should always stay for those who are experienced with it, but for those who aren't, they should be able to configure everything they want graphically. That way, people can just pick it up and learn at their own pace. For problems, they come here.
Firewing1

[92b16vx]

Linspire has tried, in the thread I posted a couple weeks ago, a friend of mine has been using it for over a year. Me and him were talking on IM and I discovered he didn't even know what the terminal was, or where to find it :)

[Firewing1]

:) lol nice...
ususally w/ Linux you encounter a config problem that requires terminal access to fix it...
Firewing1

[bitrain]

and your done it would be great, but first you have to unpack then move into directory, tell it to make an install, than install, then configure, blah there's a reason install shield for windows is so easy.I was programming something, but it kinda got replaced by another project, maybe tomorrow I will restart again. I already have a gui made, but I got stuck with yum and checking dependencies so users can say if they want to download extra files if they are needed. The thought was to let it handle rpms and sources that are local on the pc and install them and use yum for dependencies. Maybe more tomorrow...

[92b16vx]

See, that would rock :)

Sometimes when I DL rpms, package installer picks it up, and does the install, which is cool and easy, but sometimes it doesn't :(.

[Steve T]

I think that Linux for the desktop will develop a huge amount in the next few years! I have been using linux for 4-5 years now and it has made huge advancements so far and as more people are getting into it i think that things will start to speed up and wel will see some really exciting advancements!!

However....

Linux for the server enviroment (Non GUI) i think will advance but not ad much because there is not much to do! As it stands it runs and it runs damm well!

Steve

[maclinux]

When I first started using Linux when RedHat 7.0 came out the 2 things that scared me the most was the file system layout and installing software. Now my fear is gone because I am more familar with the file system layout and tools like yum and apt make installing software easier that windows. After using Windows, Mac, and Linux, I think that Windows and Mac filesystem layout are more self-explainatory.

Regarding my comment about most people not using XP yet, many people are still using computers that were purchased before XP was released and they never upgraded the os, and computer that were purchased after XP was released but decided not to use XP. Micro$oft not fully supporting Windows 2000 anymore should hopefully should get those non-XP users to go and pirate-I mean purchase a copy of XP soon.

[Firewing1]

There was previous talk about Linux working as a whole. Even if we're so many distro's, that's what gives linux the edge. You don't like something, change it. Make it. Besides, we're all GPL so if one distro makes a program, we all do. Member how Mandrake started on RHL?
Firewing1

[92b16vx]

No, that's what keeps Linuxs resources scattered. Think about it, woudn't it be nice to have Fedoras hardware detection, Mandrakes ease, Suse look (I personally like a lot of the themes), Linspire ease of application aquisition, KDE flexibilty and Gnome stability all in one package that you could make look how you wanted, and install/manage programs with the manager of your choice, and a support community that could all answer any questions you have?

[maclinux]

KDE and GNOME are great but I think Linux also needs a really good GUI like Mac OS X. I know that current Linux GUIs can be themed and modded to look as great as Mac OS X, but most average users wont spend the time to theme and mod their GUI.

[Artik]

One thing I have to mention - Linux development speed and progress is much faster then speed of Microsoft. When I compare Debain Woody - that was from same release period as Win XP and I see Debain Sarge that is relased today... There are HUGE difference you even can't compare Gnome 1.4 with Gnome 2.8.
The fast release period makes the job...
When I've read about Longhorn additions I didn't found too much advanteges - actually XP is seems like 98+NT+slight GUI improvements... Linux had done much significant step forward.

Anyway there may be several scenarios for future prediction:

Factors that may affect Linux/Window market sharing

The cost versus advantages of Longhorn. When it will be released we can assume it will be better and more stable then XP. However how many companies/users will want to pay money for upgrade - and it includes Hardware and Software for Longhorn advantages?
How much information will be known for average user/company manager when Longhorn will be released. When company managers/users will have/want to upgrade the version to Longhorn it is critical point in understanding of possible alternatives.
Marketing - today neither RedHat nor Novel or other commercial Linux companies do not make any aggressive marketing of their product - in comparison to Microsoft.
The antipiracy process - today you can download Windows XP Pro from eMule fery fast and easy. MS had tryed to prevent by adding different features - like - registration on-line. If they will success many users will not be able to upgrade their systems - it is known that big part (if not most) of home users use pirated Windows. It might seems rediculas but it helps Microsoft because they do not look for alternative solution. Especially in 3rd world or poor contries like Russia where average user can't pay 500$ for license for Windows.
Legal issues - like patenting - any monopoly.
The price of MS products


So the scenarios:
1st
New released version of Longhorn - is best on market. Most of viruses/spyware problems solved using advantaged scurity technologies and internal changes. The user interface become even easier for average user. The upgrade cost is reasonable for these advantages.
Linux remains on same position as today. Because of new MS developed technologies it is remain very hard for companies to do multiplatform development. OS remains one step behind of MS.
2nd
New released version of Longhord - remains with same internal problems like security that become more and more important for average customer. The advantages of Longhorn are not significant in comparison to the cost users have to pay. Most of users/companies stay with XP. The public/goverment organizations look more and more for alternatives. Linux grows in the market in goverment/public organization it gets much better support. But still average user downloads Longhorn form eMule and use it. He anyway has quite modern HW for games so Longorn fine for them.
3rd
Several thing that might do groud brake at market sharing

Antipiracy company. Average user can't get freeware Longorn. Most of users of poor contries can't upgrade to Longhorn. When looking alternatives they come to OpenSource platform. The Linux market gets significant part in poor (less developed) countries like Russia, China, Eastern Europe, South America
Anti monopole low. Mirosoft add closed Office document standard and creates new developemnt platform with closed features. The main US low-court brakes mircosoft into two companies and eforces to open some of sources/standarts (sorry english is not my native language - not sure I'm correct about it ;) ). It significantly effects development process and market sharing - HOW? Allmost not predictable - but at this stage Linux become safer and more stable platform.
New virus was deployed. It destroyes huge amount of information and makes damage of billions dollars to government organization and commercail companies. Allmost all companies are damaged by this virus. It stops their work for allmost week for maintance and recovery. In this period all Linux servers and users enjoy their system. After that lots of companies move to OpenSource platform


4th
Mr. XXX donates several milion dollars for OS community and together with OS aimed companies like RedHat huge and aggressive marketing done. Every day you see the stories about Linux on TV. In the pauses between movies you see many commercils on RedHat or other OS companies. Many students and advanced computers users move to OS platoform at home. It starts affecting goverment organization and companies. Linux market sharing grows.
5th
Microsoft reduces the prices of the software... Longhorn Home edition and Office 2007 now cost about 70$. Organization can purcache corporate license with allmost unlimited installation numbers for 500$. Public oranizations, universities and different foundations get Liceses for free. While having lots of its "child" problems of security and stability it still remains familiar for most of users platform. Lots of OS companies can't stand in these situation and loosing market. Different government/public organization that were in process of moving to OS return back to Windows platform. Linux starts loosing market space... This process is hard to be stopped because of loosing its main advantage - being cheap


Conclustions
I think most of scenarios has place. What will happen. I think 1st and 2nd are more reasonable - but all may become real.

I've tryed to be as objective as I can. Anyway - long live Linux!!!

[Firewing1]

I've tryed to be as objective as I can. Anyway - long live Linux!!!
well said! I personally think #2 is most probable, as M$'s OS being stable anytime soon is near impossible :p
Firewing1

[Artik]

I've added 5th scenario...

I think it also possible and may be intersting

[kona0197]

Where will Linux be in 2 years?

One (or more) of the following will happen:

1. Microsoft will buy out most of the distros and then stop supporting them thereby eliminating Linux altogether.

2. All distros will band together under one name to fight MS.

3. Linux will be as it is now - hard to learn, hard to use for noobs, and will not have advanced much because all the Linux coders are doing is trying to reinvent the wheel every time they release a new version of a distro instead of fixing the little problems first.

4. Red Hat will be bought out by some big time corperation - elimanating Fedora.

[Steve T]

Where will Linux be in 2 years?

One (or more) of the following will happen:

1. Microsoft will buy out most of the distros and then stop supporting them thereby eliminating Linux altogether.

I dout this very much as there is such a big following now that if all the big names got bought out then there would be groups of people start new distros because they love linux and that what they want to use.

2. All distros will band together under one name to fight MS.

I would like to see this because i have alway belived that there is allot of time and effort being waisted because people are do the samethings over and over again.

3. Linux will be as it is now - hard to learn, hard to use for noobs, and will not have advanced much because all the Linux coders are doing is trying to reinvent the wheel every time they release a new version of a distro instead of fixing the little problems first.

I also disagree with this as i have seen Linux devolop over the last 5 years and there has been huge advances. I truly belive that there will be a huge differance in 2 years time.

4. Red Hat will be bought out by some big time corperation - elimanating Fedora.

Its possible that they will get bought out and fedora will disipear but if this does happen im sure that there will be fedora spin offs that we can use.

[Off Topic]I take it from your name you ride a Kona?[/Off Topic]

Steve

[kona0197]

No - I used to ride a '96 Kona Lava Dome. Best bike I ever owned hence the name. I now ride a Motobecane.

Back to topic...

[cornsnap]

Linux or NIX operating systems are the next generation computing. End of story.

[w5set]

umm, my old cracked crystal ball is a bit foggy...but...
not in just 2 short years, maybe closer to the year 2011 we will have the very fast and cheap OS of
"WINDORA" (patent pending on 47,123 patents).
Only $3,409 for first time users/installers---and tech support for a mere $220 a minute if you speak Swahili or an obscure dialect of Northern Oregon. Other languages supported but a fast sliding scale upwards for cost.
It will run as a Live or install from an optical cube storage boot device;
It only requires a nominal 8.5 ghz processor.
It will run in as little as 16gb and install on a smallish 200 terrabyte hard drive.
This new OS is the complete blending of former Windos based technology and the wholehearted security of one of the last standing distro's of Linux who could afford the lawyer contingent necessary to fend off the 2008/2009 years of legal battles.
It will have a security update cycle of either 16 minutes or 1.6 years which ever one is most fashionable at the time.
It will run on any normal PC/embedded processor or mainframe known.
It can run multiple occurances of itself but won't ever dual/triple/quad boot with any other know distro/OS.
It will require the entire hard drive of course and DRM write protects the boot sector permanently.
All updates will be in the form of patches and will only be available to known registered users who have a good clear criminal record who send in their normal 6 month re-registration payments on time.

The Windos technology was reaching end of life and sorely needed an infusion of newer knowledge and practices since the early death of of one of the founders of the Win trademark when he had a stroke at a news conference last year during one of his frequent rantings.
A merger was suggested as a last ditch effort to keep the Win name alive and a very kind hearted 'nix community reached out to help.
But there's a fly in the ointment, as hundreds if not thousands of 'dora users cried out--"let it die! die! die! a normal death" and simply forked off with another new named distro (PurpleSombrero)to go their own "win unencumbered" way, stating "We can still do it right even though those $%$$ ATI graphics cards give us hell still".

[lazlow]

The funny part of this thread is that it has been almost two years since it was started. So it essentially answers its own question.

[Stian1979]

Linux will stay the same as it is today until the hardware suport gets behter.

I tryed Linux for the first time in 1999? as red hat 6.2 witch I skipeed quicly when I was not even able to get the right reselution on the screen.

I tryed Corell linux 1 and 2, mandrake and SUSE.

Fist time I got a permanent install was xandros witch worked well, moust codecs was installed and disks was mounted truble free and all I had to do to get internet was mounting a external ISDN modem on the com port or plug in a LAN cable in the realtec card. By now it was 5-6 years since I first tryed Linux and still did not know how to config a xorg file or write a comando in the shell.

I tryed some Knopix versons on live CD befour instaling FC4 on my laptop since I bought a laptop with 64bit and Microsoft did not at this time (and newer will) deliver a 64bit XP for norwegian and I refused to buy a new Vista license and it was kind of sad to use 32bit xp when you know you have a 64bit.

Sadly I was not able to get online because the instalation mixed the wireless and the lan card.
I had a brake until FC6 and that was the first one I regulary used since my xandros instalation.

The only thing that piss me of now is the ALI webcam, Broadcom Wireless, ASUS ACPI.
As long as hardware is not bether suported linux is stuck where it is now. Nobody want to buy a new computer gadget that show up and wont have suported drivers until it's gone 2 years.

My computer will turn 2 in december and the Broadcom, Audio DJ, FN button and Webcam is still not suported :mad:

[RupertPupkin]

The funny part of this thread is that it has been almost two years since it was started. So it essentially answers its own question.
Yeah, it's funny to look back at the doom-n-gloom predictions now. I don't know why Linux seems to attract certain kinds of people who love to worry about the slightest thing and piss and moan about how Linux is doomed. Linux will be just fine, don't worry, people! :)

[ironeagle62]

Where will Linux be in 2 years?....



On my PC. :cool:

Wow is that prophetic or what? :p